Kiss and tell: foreclosure

LPS Applied Analytics released their November Mortgage Performance data. According to LPS:

• The average number of days delinquent for loans in foreclosure is a record 499 days

• Over 4.3 million loans are 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure

• Delinquency rates are down across all products as more loans entered foreclosure and new delinquencies declined.

• Foreclosure inventory increases are being driven both by elevated levels of foreclosure starts as well as a very limited amount of foreclosure sale activity.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph provided by LPS Applied Analytics shows the percent delinquent, percent in foreclosure, and total non-current mortgages.

The percent in the foreclosure process is trending up because of the foreclosure moratoriums.

According to LPS, 9.02% of mortgages are delinquent (down from 9.29% in October), and another 4.08% are in the foreclosure process (up from 3.92% in October) for a total of 13.10%. It breaks down as:

• 2.61 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.

• 2.16 million loans 90+ days delinquent.

• 2.16 million loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of 6.92 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure.

Note: I've seen some people include these 7 million delinquent loans as "shadow inventory". This is not correct because 1) some of these loans will cure, and 2) some of these homes are already listed for sale (so they are included in the visible inventory).

Two key numbers to watch in 2011 are:

• New delinquencies. With falling house prices, delinquencies could start to increase again.

• Foreclosures. With the end of the foreclosure moratoriums, foreclosure sales should increase - and the number of homes in the foreclosure process should decline. However REOs (Real Estate Owned) will increase unless the homes are sold.

Obviously for REO there will be two peaks. The first was in late 2008 and largely private-label securities and subprime, and the 2nd will probably be in 2011 and be heavily GSE REOs.

The height of the 2nd peak depends on the number of foreclosures, and the how quickly the lenders can sell the REOs. The foreclosure-gate related moratoriums have slowed the foreclosure process, but foreclosures will probably pick up again in early 2011. My guess is the 2nd peak will happen in 2011 and be close to the same height as in 2008.

One of the key issues is the number of delinquent loans (and loans in the foreclosure process). I use the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) quarterly data and LPS Applied Analytics monthly data to track delinquencies.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph based on the MBA quarterly data shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. The MBA reported that 13.52 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q3 2010 (seasonally adjusted). This was down from 14.42 percent in Q2 2010.

Most of the decline in the overall delinquency rate was in the seriously delinquent categories (90+ days or in foreclosure process). Part of the reason is lenders were being more aggressive in foreclosing in Q3 (before the foreclosure pause) - hence the surge in REO inventory in the first graphs! Some of the decline was probably related to modifications too.

This graph provided by LPS Applied Analytics shows the percent delinquent, percent in foreclosure, and total non-current mortgages through November.

The percent in the foreclosure process is trending up because of the foreclosure moratoriums.

According to LPS, 9.02% of mortgages are delinquent (down from 9.29% in October), and another 4.08% are in the foreclosure process (up from 3.92% in October) for a total of 13.10%.

With falling house prices, the delinquency rate could start rising again since more homeowners will have negative equity. However just because a homeowner has negative equity doesn't mean they will default. It usually takes another factor such as loss of employment, divorce, or a medical emergency for the homeowner to default.

On the other hand, an improving labor market will help push down the delinquency rate. My guess is the overall delinquency rate has peaked, although I expect the delinquency rate to stay elevated for some time.

Ten Questions:

• Question #1 for 2011: House Prices

• Question #2 for 2011: Residential Investment

• Question #3 for 2011: Delinquencies and Distressed house sales

• Question #4 for 2011: U.S. Economic Growth

• Question #5 for 2011: Employment

• Question #6 for 2011: Unemployment Rate

• Question #7 for 2011: State and Local Governments

• Question #8 for 2011: Europe and the Euro

• Question #9 for 2011: Inflation

• Question #10 for 2011: Monetary Policy

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Monday, January 24, 2011

foreclosure

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